Analysis of China's export trend in 2022

In 2021, China's total export volume will break through the 3 trillion US dollars mark for the first time, reaching 3353.96 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth rate of 29.9%. The growth rate is also the highest in nearly 10 years. The growth rate of net exports of goods and services to GDP is 1.69%, a new high since 2006.

In 2022, the high import scale of developed economies may face a decline. Take the United States as an example. Since May 2020, the scale of personal commodity consumption expenditure, especially durable goods, has shown explosive growth. It is a rare extreme situation after World War II, and it is difficult to maintain it for a long time. It should also be noted that China's exports are still resilient.

As for the RMB exchange rate, it may not be as strong in 2022 as it was in 2021. However, according to the above discussion, the exchange rate is not currently the leading factor affecting post epidemic trade, so it has little impact on exports in 2022.

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